BAS 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:08 CST · 捉妖器
0.027323
+0.4% 24h
量 $3.8M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.035407 | 0.04568 | 0.032525 | 0.04122 | +16.4% | 40.4% | 1,173,382K | 放量 中阳 |
| 07/05 | 0.041225 | 0.045789 | 0.02859 | 0.029025 | -29.6% | 60.2% | 967,345K | 大阴 ★新高 |
| 07/06 | 0.029056 | 0.033853 | 0.025585 | 0.02855 | -1.7% | 32.3% | 848,437K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.028551 | 0.029055 | 0.025113 | 0.026431 | -7.4% | 15.7% | 257,424K | |
| 07/08 | 0.026433 | 0.031968 | 0.0251 | 0.027429 | +3.8% | 27.4% | 457,339K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.02744 | 0.028742 | 0.026727 | 0.028686 | +4.5% | 7.5% | 132,039K | |
| 07/10 | 0.028675 | 0.02906 | 0.025394 | 0.025556 | -10.9% | 14.4% | 118,198K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.025557 | 0.028325 | 0.025337 | 0.025917 | +1.4% | 11.8% | 129,695K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/12 | 0.025905 | 0.02732 | 0.0255 | 0.027095 | +4.6% | 7.1% | 78,116K | 缩量 |
| 07/13 | 0.027084 | 0.027488 | 0.025619 | 0.026277 | -3.0% | 7.3% | 77,541K | 缩量 |
| 07/14 | 0.026279 | 0.03076 | 0.025233 | 0.025942 | -1.3% | 21.9% | 228,496K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/15 | 0.02594 | 0.026229 | 0.023544 | 0.024972 | -3.7% | 11.4% | 176,007K | 长下影 |
| 07/16 | 0.024955 | 0.028551 | 0.024903 | 0.027332 | +9.5% | 14.6% | 179,458K | |
| 07/17 | 0.02733 | 0.027598 | 0.02629 | 0.027323 | -0.0% | 5.0% | 31,103K | 缩量 十字星 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $12.5M | |
| 06/19 | $12.0M | -3.8% |
| 06/20 | $12.0M | -0.4% |
| 06/21 | $11.9M | -0.8% |
| 06/22 | $11.8M | -0.4% |
| 06/23 | $11.1M | -5.8% |
| 06/24 | $12.1M | +8.2% |
| 06/25 | $16.7M | +38.3% |
| 06/26 | $17.3M | +3.7% |
| 06/27 | $17.1M | -1.1% |
| 06/28 | $16.3M | -4.7% |
| 06/29 | $16.7M | +2.4% |
| 06/30 | $21.4M | +28.6% |
| 07/01 | $14.8M | -31.0% |
| 07/02 | $11.4M | -23.1% |
| 07/03 | $6.6M | -42.0% |
| 07/04 | $7.0M | +5.7% |
| 07/05 | $6.9M | -0.4% |
| 07/06 | $4.1M | -40.3% |
| 07/07 | $3.9M | -4.9% |
| 07/08 | $3.5M | -9.9% |
| 07/09 | $3.5M | -0.2% |
| 07/10 | $3.5M | -0.2% |
| 07/11 | $3.1M | -12.1% |
| 07/12 | $3.0M | -3.7% |
| 07/13 | $3.2M | +6.3% |
| 07/14 | $3.0M | -4.6% |
| 07/15 | $2.9M | -5.6% |
| 07/16 | $2.8M | -3.6% |
| 07/17 | $3.0M | +7.3% |
- 当前OI $3.0M,占近30日峰值的14%
- 近7天OI变化-5%
- 最近1日OI变化+7%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-10%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 35 | 46 | 89 | 104 | 0.0262962 | 0.0265853 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 多 | 39 | 34 | 100 | 86 | 0.0261559 | 0.0266483 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 多 | 31 | 43 | 97 | 89 | 0.0262011 | 0.0270049 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 空 | 39 | 34 | 84 | 83 | 0.0259515 | 0.0267994 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 空 | 35 | 39 | 91 | 88 | 0.0262664 | 0.02674 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 45 | 22 | 88 | 77 | 0.0261108 | 0.0262879 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 空 | 42 | 30 | 82 | 76 | 0.0263087 | 0.0267033 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 空 | 51 | 35 | 121 | 90 | 0.0281636 | 0.0285402 |
| 07/15 01:22 | 空 | 53 | 33 | 124 | 94 | 0.0285022 | 0.0285873 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 空 | 48 | 36 | 116 | 121 | 0.0261457 | 0.027771 |
| 07/15 18:36 | 多 | 39 | 35 | 90 | 112 | 0.0248899 | 0.025644 |
| 07/16 02:52 | 多 | 43 | 29 | 86 | 105 | 0.0246941 | 0.0253491 |
| 07/16 10:22 | 空 | 38 | 43 | 105 | 92 | 0.0253597 | 0.0254199 |
| 07/17 01:56 | 空 | 45 | 38 | 125 | 70 | 0.0267427 | 0.0270243 |
| 07/17 10:02 | 多 | 37 | 31 | 99 | 66 | 0.0275464 | 0.0275995 |
- 数据跨度121小时(430个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 35→37(+2)
- 空头巨鲸 46→31(-15)
- 多头交易员 89→99(+10)
- 空头交易员 104→66(-38)
- 多头成本 0.0263→0.02755(+4.8%)
- 空头成本 0.02659→0.0276(+3.8%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -0.8%
- 空头浮盈亏 +1.0%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 03:51 @ 0.02647 · 至今+3.2%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 23.3×
垂直爆发已疯 (127%)
OI$3.0M (峰值14%)
距本轮峰值57.2% · 17天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度88%
深盘锚定12%
类比≈F 见顶后178天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升23倍(垂直爆发127%),见顶后17天已崩57%,现价仍是最初起点的10.0倍
- 距本轮峰值57%,见顶后17天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.04M,占77%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空