BEAT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:03 CST · 捉妖器
2.57
-1.0% 24h
量 $10.5M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 2.659 | 3.114 | 2.571 | 2.884 | +8.5% | 21.1% | 14,479K | ★新高 |
| 07/05 | 2.883 | 2.919 | 2.671 | 2.801 | -2.8% | 9.3% | 8,339K | 长下影 |
| 07/06 | 2.801 | 2.813 | 2.344 | 2.574 | -8.1% | 20.0% | 12,253K | |
| 07/07 | 2.574 | 2.727 | 2.354 | 2.438 | -5.3% | 15.8% | 10,045K | |
| 07/08 | 2.438 | 2.486 | 2.052 | 2.352 | -3.5% | 21.2% | 12,351K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 2.351 | 2.36 | 2.104 | 2.204 | -6.3% | 12.2% | 8,053K | |
| 07/10 | 2.204 | 2.725 | 2.148 | 2.683 | +21.7% | 26.9% | 17,847K | 大阳 |
| 07/11 | 2.684 | 3.057 | 2.226 | 2.348 | -12.5% | 37.3% | 59,362K | 放量 中阴 |
| 07/12 | 2.348 | 2.927 | 2.166 | 2.55 | +8.6% | 35.1% | 39,958K | |
| 07/13 | 2.551 | 2.716 | 2.426 | 2.645 | +3.7% | 12.0% | 15,025K | |
| 07/14 | 2.644 | 2.691 | 2.488 | 2.513 | -5.0% | 8.2% | 7,259K | |
| 07/15 | 2.514 | 2.856 | 2.495 | 2.597 | +3.3% | 14.5% | 8,977K | 长上影 |
| 07/16 | 2.597 | 2.645 | 2.402 | 2.548 | -1.9% | 10.1% | 6,188K | 长下影 |
| 07/17 | 2.549 | 2.607 | 2.499 | 2.57 | +0.8% | 4.3% | 1,708K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $18.5M | |
| 06/19 | $14.0M | -24.4% |
| 06/20 | $13.7M | -2.2% |
| 06/21 | $12.8M | -6.9% |
| 06/22 | $13.6M | +6.6% |
| 06/23 | $12.2M | -10.6% |
| 06/24 | $17.0M | +40.0% |
| 06/25 | $12.6M | -26.3% |
| 06/26 | $14.3M | +13.9% |
| 06/27 | $17.0M | +18.8% |
| 06/28 | $17.3M | +1.5% |
| 06/29 | $17.8M | +3.0% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | +0.8% |
| 07/01 | $18.3M | +1.9% |
| 07/02 | $16.1M | -11.8% |
| 07/03 | $18.3M | +13.4% |
| 07/04 | $14.3M | -21.9% |
| 07/05 | $15.2M | +6.6% |
| 07/06 | $14.6M | -3.7% |
| 07/07 | $13.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/08 | $12.8M | -7.5% |
| 07/09 | $12.4M | -2.6% |
| 07/10 | $11.6M | -6.8% |
| 07/11 | $15.2M | +31.0% |
| 07/12 | $14.1M | -7.0% |
| 07/13 | $14.9M | +5.7% |
| 07/14 | $14.6M | -2.0% |
| 07/15 | $13.8M | -5.5% |
| 07/16 | $14.2M | +2.6% |
| 07/17 | $14.2M | +0.5% |
- 当前OI $14.2M,占近30日峰值的77%
- 近7天OI变化-6%
- 最近1日OI变化+0%
- 价涨OI跌:上涨靠空头平仓驱动,非新多入场,动力减弱
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 82 | 54 | 238 | 261 | 2.695 | 2.814 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 空 | 71 | 63 | 213 | 242 | 2.552 | 2.698 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 多 | 88 | 46 | 210 | 232 | 2.598 | 2.746 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 空 | 69 | 63 | 185 | 252 | 2.751 | 2.736 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 空 | 58 | 82 | 175 | 220 | 2.614 | 2.7 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 空 | 61 | 77 | 186 | 173 | 2.583 | 2.623 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 多 | 60 | 72 | 151 | 157 | 2.542 | 2.602 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 多 | 71 | 59 | 148 | 136 | 2.621 | 2.641 |
| 07/15 01:22 | 多 | 71 | 61 | 150 | 131 | 2.585 | 2.611 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 空 | 50 | 52 | 130 | 145 | 2.604 | 2.702 |
| 07/15 18:36 | 空 | 50 | 43 | 138 | 124 | 2.608 | 2.704 |
| 07/16 02:52 | 空 | 44 | 55 | 130 | 140 | 2.667 | 2.744 |
| 07/16 10:22 | 多 | 40 | 67 | 108 | 175 | 2.594 | 2.596 |
| 07/17 01:56 | 多 | 43 | 52 | 113 | 131 | 2.467 | 2.503 |
| 07/17 10:02 | 空 | 33 | 47 | 96 | 100 | 2.544 | 2.584 |
- 数据跨度121小时(430个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 82→33(-49)
- 空头巨鲸 54→47(-7)
- 多头交易员 238→96(-142)
- 空头交易员 261→100(-161)
- 多头成本 2.695→2.544(-5.6%)
- 空头成本 2.814→2.584(-8.2%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +1.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 +0.5%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0053% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0069% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0085% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0061% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0059% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0091% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 21:07 @ 2.832 · 至今-9.3%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 76.17×
垂直爆发已疯 (168%)
OI$14.2M (峰值77%)
距本轮峰值77.8% · 35天
二轮风险低 · 9%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈BR 见顶前326天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升76倍(垂直爆发168%),见顶后35天已崩78%,现价仍是最初起点的16.9倍
- 距本轮峰值78%,见顶后35天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.08M,占54%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈9%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI跌:上涨靠空头平仓驱动,非新多入场,动力减弱
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空