JCT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:10 CST · 捉妖器
0.003824
-11.5% 24h
量 $3.8M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.004199 | 0.004364 | 0.003153 | 0.003361 | -20.0% | 38.4% | 2,515,050K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.003362 | 0.003911 | 0.003251 | 0.003689 | +9.7% | 20.3% | 2,032,978K | |
| 07/06 | 0.00369 | 0.003746 | 0.0031 | 0.003296 | -10.7% | 20.8% | 1,159,987K | 中阴 |
| 07/07 | 0.003293 | 0.003487 | 0.003191 | 0.003273 | -0.6% | 9.3% | 656,456K | 缩量 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/08 | 0.003274 | 0.003516 | 0.003182 | 0.003294 | +0.6% | 10.5% | 766,430K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.003295 | 0.003516 | 0.003255 | 0.003461 | +5.0% | 8.0% | 496,012K | 缩量 |
| 07/10 | 0.003461 | 0.003834 | 0.003389 | 0.003521 | +1.7% | 13.1% | 863,920K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/11 | 0.003521 | 0.003591 | 0.003283 | 0.003341 | -5.1% | 9.4% | 470,106K | 缩量 |
| 07/12 | 0.00334 | 0.003768 | 0.003185 | 0.003591 | +7.5% | 18.3% | 851,032K | |
| 07/13 | 0.003589 | 0.004486 | 0.003543 | 0.004336 | +20.8% | 26.6% | 14,247,911K | 放量 大阳 |
| 07/14 | 0.00434 | 0.004534 | 0.004041 | 0.004317 | -0.5% | 12.2% | 3,075,155K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/15 | 0.004317 | 0.0048 | 0.004177 | 0.00431 | -0.2% | 14.9% | 1,580,792K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/16 | 0.004307 | 0.004562 | 0.003877 | 0.003938 | -8.6% | 17.7% | 761,240K | |
| 07/17 | 0.003939 | 0.004088 | 0.003683 | 0.003824 | -2.9% | 11.0% | 514,997K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $12.0M | |
| 06/19 | $11.6M | -4.1% |
| 06/20 | $10.9M | -5.8% |
| 06/21 | $10.3M | -5.5% |
| 06/22 | $11.6M | +13.2% |
| 06/23 | $11.2M | -3.8% |
| 06/24 | $11.3M | +0.7% |
| 06/25 | $9.1M | -19.1% |
| 06/26 | $8.7M | -4.1% |
| 06/27 | $9.0M | +3.0% |
| 06/28 | $8.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/29 | $11.9M | +35.0% |
| 06/30 | $9.7M | -18.0% |
| 07/01 | $9.3M | -4.5% |
| 07/02 | $8.9M | -4.6% |
| 07/03 | $9.3M | +4.8% |
| 07/04 | $8.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/05 | $7.3M | -16.1% |
| 07/06 | $8.0M | +9.1% |
| 07/07 | $7.1M | -11.6% |
| 07/08 | $7.0M | -1.5% |
| 07/09 | $7.0M | +0.9% |
| 07/10 | $7.5M | +5.9% |
| 07/11 | $7.6M | +2.5% |
| 07/12 | $7.3M | -5.1% |
| 07/13 | $7.7M | +6.2% |
| 07/14 | $10.8M | +39.9% |
| 07/15 | $10.0M | -6.8% |
| 07/16 | $9.6M | -4.0% |
| 07/17 | $8.6M | -11.0% |
- 当前OI $8.6M,占近30日峰值的71%
- 近7天OI变化+12%
- 最近1日OI变化-11%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-8%
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 29 | 28 | 75 | 69 | 0.00336563 | 0.00344099 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 多 | 32 | 27 | 80 | 68 | 0.00331844 | 0.00332638 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 多 | 31 | 36 | 81 | 87 | 0.00334883 | 0.00340008 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 空 | 37 | 44 | 132 | 156 | 0.00390982 | 0.00387987 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 多 | 51 | 50 | 189 | 227 | 0.00413696 | 0.00405264 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 54 | 46 | 190 | 230 | 0.00420645 | 0.00432481 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 多 | 51 | 43 | 147 | 223 | 0.00425047 | 0.00434805 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 空 | 49 | 35 | 127 | 147 | 0.00428284 | 0.00432338 |
| 07/15 01:22 | 空 | 43 | 43 | 135 | 123 | 0.00425155 | 0.00428261 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 多 | 47 | 31 | 122 | 101 | 0.00433203 | 0.00440706 |
| 07/15 18:36 | 多 | 45 | 29 | 122 | 92 | 0.00435074 | 0.0044494 |
| 07/16 02:52 | 多 | 41 | 32 | 110 | 99 | 0.00435706 | 0.00445266 |
| 07/16 10:22 | 多 | 44 | 32 | 120 | 96 | 0.0044384 | 0.00447584 |
| 07/17 01:56 | 空 | 31 | 44 | 87 | 115 | 0.00409931 | 0.00416085 |
| 07/17 10:02 | 多 | 28 | 34 | 100 | 97 | 0.00400939 | 0.00400624 |
- 数据跨度121小时(430个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 29→28(-1)
- 空头巨鲸 28→34(+6)
- 多头交易员 75→100(+25)
- 空头交易员 69→97(+28)
- 多头成本 0.003366→0.004009(+19.1%)
- 空头成本 0.003441→0.004006(+16.4%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -4.6%
- 空头浮盈亏 +4.5%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0298% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0112% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0183% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0186% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-17 09:56 @ 0.003992 · 至今-4.2%
置信度high
空单目标仓位70%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第1轮 · 7.35×
垂直爆发已疯 (71%)
OI$8.6M (峰值71%)
距本轮峰值53.8% · 34天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度90%
深盘锚定10%
类比≈CROSS 见顶后168天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升7倍(垂直爆发71%),见顶后34天已崩54%,现价仍是最初起点的3.4倍
- 距本轮峰值54%,破位下行
- OI 24h崩塌-12%
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.03M,占50%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 崩后主跌:持仓量在崩、确认是真下跌(不是洗盘),可以正当做空;加仓到 60-80%:收网确认,已有安全垫,回弹处加
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
- 阶段裁决:继续做空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场