MAGMA 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:01 CST · 捉妖器
0.29511
-7.8% 24h
量 $6.2M
余震
观察·勿新开空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.80374 | 0.82555 | 0.50111 | 0.56978 | -29.1% | 64.7% | 230,402K | 大阴 ★新高 |
| 07/05 | 0.56981 | 0.58479 | 0.44945 | 0.48496 | -14.9% | 30.1% | 92,148K | 中阴 |
| 07/06 | 0.48494 | 0.51113 | 0.434 | 0.44325 | -8.6% | 17.8% | 28,495K | |
| 07/07 | 0.44322 | 0.44606 | 0.318 | 0.35952 | -18.9% | 40.3% | 77,514K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.35951 | 0.41287 | 0.311 | 0.36044 | +0.3% | 32.8% | 58,619K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.36043 | 0.44567 | 0.3508 | 0.44537 | +23.6% | 27.0% | 48,519K | 大阳 |
| 07/10 | 0.44518 | 0.44999 | 0.38188 | 0.41759 | -6.2% | 17.8% | 28,854K | 长下影 |
| 07/11 | 0.41756 | 0.42759 | 0.36 | 0.39205 | -6.1% | 18.8% | 19,393K | 缩量 |
| 07/12 | 0.39205 | 0.52985 | 0.30809 | 0.32193 | -17.9% | 72.0% | 164,882K | 中阴 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 0.32194 | 0.37765 | 0.2924 | 0.29967 | -6.9% | 29.2% | 87,166K | 长上影 |
| 07/14 | 0.29981 | 0.30795 | 0.24432 | 0.27687 | -7.7% | 26.0% | 142,959K | 长下影 |
| 07/15 | 0.27665 | 0.32448 | 0.27563 | 0.31323 | +13.2% | 17.7% | 113,734K | 中阳 |
| 07/16 | 0.31321 | 0.33414 | 0.29067 | 0.29707 | -5.2% | 15.0% | 33,061K | |
| 07/17 | 0.29707 | 0.30405 | 0.28935 | 0.29511 | -0.7% | 5.1% | 5,297K | 缩量 十字星 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $10.9M | |
| 06/19 | $8.0M | -26.8% |
| 06/20 | $8.0M | -0.2% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/22 | $10.0M | +27.9% |
| 06/23 | $8.0M | -19.7% |
| 06/24 | $7.3M | -8.9% |
| 06/25 | $7.1M | -1.9% |
| 06/26 | $7.3M | +2.3% |
| 06/27 | $11.8M | +61.8% |
| 06/28 | $9.2M | -21.8% |
| 06/29 | $8.1M | -12.9% |
| 06/30 | $8.1M | +0.5% |
| 07/01 | $7.6M | -6.5% |
| 07/02 | $6.5M | -14.5% |
| 07/03 | $10.5M | +63.0% |
| 07/04 | $23.4M | +122.0% |
| 07/05 | $13.0M | -44.3% |
| 07/06 | $10.1M | -22.5% |
| 07/07 | $8.6M | -14.6% |
| 07/08 | $6.7M | -23.0% |
| 07/09 | $6.2M | -7.5% |
| 07/10 | $7.6M | +23.8% |
| 07/11 | $6.9M | -9.9% |
| 07/12 | $6.4M | -6.7% |
| 07/13 | $5.8M | -8.9% |
| 07/14 | $5.2M | -10.5% |
| 07/15 | $5.5M | +4.8% |
| 07/16 | $6.1M | +11.4% |
| 07/17 | $5.3M | -12.2% |
- 当前OI $5.3M,占近30日峰值的23%
- 近7天OI变化-22%
- 最近1日OI变化-12%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-12%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 45 | 38 | 124 | 107 | 0.393621 | 0.389565 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 多 | 41 | 46 | 108 | 148 | 0.447835 | 0.475387 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 空 | 49 | 57 | 191 | 208 | 0.363793 | 0.463613 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 空 | 45 | 63 | 195 | 219 | 0.342387 | 0.508782 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 空 | 65 | 48 | 233 | 192 | 0.363 | 0.502168 |
| 07/14 00:06 | 多 | 44 | 64 | 138 | 183 | 0.336791 | 0.353618 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 多 | 45 | 47 | 147 | 142 | 0.348424 | 0.337259 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 多 | 48 | 54 | 183 | 176 | 0.27393 | 0.298391 |
| 07/15 01:07 | 多 | 39 | 61 | 162 | 188 | 0.269259 | 0.275129 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 多 | 39 | 60 | 161 | 182 | 0.267725 | 0.270929 |
| 07/15 18:21 | 多 | 41 | 49 | 122 | 160 | 0.293263 | 0.298876 |
| 07/16 02:06 | 多 | 41 | 43 | 131 | 141 | 0.308741 | 0.314483 |
| 07/16 10:08 | 多 | 42 | 43 | 123 | 126 | 0.310131 | 0.316854 |
| 07/16 17:52 | 空 | 41 | 49 | 107 | 126 | 0.314358 | 0.324439 |
| 07/17 09:47 | 多 | 45 | 42 | 101 | 114 | 0.305242 | 0.304893 |
- 数据跨度121小时(429个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 45→45(+0)
- 空头巨鲸 38→42(+4)
- 多头交易员 124→101(-23)
- 空头交易员 107→114(+7)
- 多头成本 0.3936→0.3052(-22.5%)
- 空头成本 0.3896→0.3049(-21.7%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -3.3%
- 空头浮盈亏 +3.2%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0189% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0090% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0128% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0058% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0091% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0091% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0090% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0112% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-13 01:32 @ 0.37541 · 至今-21.4%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·勿新开空
周期第1轮 · 10.03×
垂直爆发已疯 (88%)
OI$5.3M (峰值23%)
距本轮峰值64.7% · 14天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈TAC 见顶前333天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升10倍(垂直爆发88%),见顶后14天已崩65%,现价仍是最初起点的3.5倍
- 距本轮峰值65%,见顶后14天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.05M,占53%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空