US 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:03 CST · 捉妖器
0.042177
+2.3% 24h
量 $92.1M
见顶·收割初期
见顶试空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.017541 | 0.01807 | 0.016555 | 0.017804 | +1.5% | 9.2% | 367,875K | 缩量 长下影 |
| 07/05 | 0.0178 | 0.017831 | 0.01637 | 0.016592 | -6.8% | 8.9% | 240,273K | 缩量 |
| 07/06 | 0.016594 | 0.024972 | 0.016207 | 0.02413 | +45.4% | 54.1% | 2,209,943K | 大阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.02414 | 0.024188 | 0.016992 | 0.019466 | -19.4% | 42.3% | 1,835,107K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.019471 | 0.020265 | 0.0172 | 0.017557 | -9.8% | 17.8% | 403,424K | 缩量 |
| 07/09 | 0.017559 | 0.03 | 0.016851 | 0.027276 | +55.3% | 78.0% | 3,385,902K | 大阳 |
| 07/10 | 0.027277 | 0.029222 | 0.021871 | 0.024327 | -10.8% | 33.6% | 3,774,693K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.024325 | 0.024641 | 0.020385 | 0.021914 | -9.9% | 20.9% | 1,067,098K | |
| 07/12 | 0.021915 | 0.025476 | 0.020604 | 0.023384 | +6.7% | 23.6% | 1,269,948K | |
| 07/13 | 0.023384 | 0.025782 | 0.022864 | 0.02524 | +7.9% | 12.8% | 691,724K | |
| 07/14 | 0.025239 | 0.02745 | 0.024363 | 0.027014 | +7.0% | 12.7% | 576,302K | |
| 07/15 | 0.027013 | 0.036998 | 0.02579 | 0.035364 | +30.9% | 43.5% | 3,185,385K | 大阳 |
| 07/16 | 0.035363 | 0.047707 | 0.034215 | 0.0428 | +21.0% | 39.4% | 5,270,436K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/17 | 0.042792 | 0.044642 | 0.040309 | 0.042177 | -1.4% | 10.7% | 630,713K | 十字星 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $7.9M | |
| 06/19 | $7.7M | -1.9% |
| 06/20 | $6.6M | -15.3% |
| 06/21 | $7.9M | +20.3% |
| 06/22 | $6.6M | -16.1% |
| 06/23 | $6.8M | +2.2% |
| 06/24 | $7.2M | +5.8% |
| 06/25 | $7.0M | -2.5% |
| 06/26 | $6.9M | -0.9% |
| 06/27 | $6.9M | +0.3% |
| 06/28 | $6.5M | -6.8% |
| 06/29 | $5.3M | -18.2% |
| 06/30 | $5.1M | -2.7% |
| 07/01 | $5.0M | -2.5% |
| 07/02 | $5.7M | +13.8% |
| 07/03 | $9.1M | +60.5% |
| 07/04 | $9.3M | +1.3% |
| 07/05 | $9.0M | -2.9% |
| 07/06 | $8.2M | -8.6% |
| 07/07 | $13.2M | +60.2% |
| 07/08 | $9.4M | -28.3% |
| 07/09 | $8.1M | -14.4% |
| 07/10 | $16.6M | +104.9% |
| 07/11 | $13.2M | -20.5% |
| 07/12 | $11.1M | -15.9% |
| 07/13 | $12.0M | +8.0% |
| 07/14 | $13.5M | +13.1% |
| 07/15 | $14.2M | +4.9% |
| 07/16 | $21.9M | +54.5% |
| 07/17 | $27.0M | +23.4% |
- 当前OI $27.0M,占近30日峰值的100%
- 近7天OI变化+105%
- OI爆炸式增长——大量新杠杆仓位涌入
- 最近1日OI变化+23%
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 43 | 68 | 136 | 168 | 0.0218098 | 0.0219541 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 空 | 50 | 65 | 151 | 178 | 0.0220236 | 0.0221444 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 空 | 50 | 63 | 154 | 170 | 0.0230756 | 0.0229835 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 多 | 60 | 53 | 165 | 155 | 0.0235292 | 0.0234101 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 多 | 55 | 59 | 146 | 156 | 0.0240231 | 0.0239132 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 41 | 68 | 124 | 161 | 0.0243764 | 0.0244706 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 多 | 37 | 65 | 112 | 158 | 0.024508 | 0.0246578 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 多 | 35 | 52 | 99 | 163 | 0.0251092 | 0.0255161 |
| 07/15 01:22 | 多 | 42 | 39 | 108 | 155 | 0.0255543 | 0.0262195 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 空 | 52 | 43 | 195 | 268 | 0.02914 | 0.0288548 |
| 07/15 18:36 | 空 | 69 | 43 | 233 | 332 | 0.0332703 | 0.0339029 |
| 07/16 02:52 | 空 | 74 | 42 | 257 | 350 | 0.0336326 | 0.0345024 |
| 07/16 10:22 | 空 | 68 | 65 | 285 | 411 | 0.0375188 | 0.0386625 |
| 07/17 01:56 | 空 | 50 | 80 | 250 | 412 | 0.0391654 | 0.0423504 |
| 07/17 10:02 | 空 | 50 | 58 | 181 | 285 | 0.0417332 | 0.043098 |
- 数据跨度121小时(430个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 43→50(+7)
- 空头巨鲸 68→58(-10)
- 多头交易员 136→181(+45)
- 空头交易员 168→285(+117)
- 多头成本 0.02181→0.04173(+91.4%)
- 空头成本 0.02195→0.0431(+96.3%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +1.1%
- 空头浮盈亏 +2.1%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0414% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0428% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0824% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0094% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0153% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0281% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0250% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0239% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0085% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0297% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0423% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0644% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0382% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0382% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0195% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0231% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0399% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0478% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0443% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0248% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段见顶·收割初期
信号起始07-17 17:17 @ 0.041909 · 至今+0.6%
置信度low
空单目标仓位25%
机会裁决SHORT · 见顶试空
周期第1轮 · 17.05×
垂直爆发已疯 (116%)
OI$27.0M (峰值100%)
距本轮峰值11.6% · 1天
价格可操纵度90%
深盘锚定10%
类比≈SIREN 见顶前3天
30天腰斩概率38%
观察到的迹象
- 距本轮峰值已12%,见顶后1天(第1轮,17.1×)
- OI停止创新高(占峰值100%)
- OI仍偏高(占峰值100%)但未达回退门槛97%——维持收割判定(阶段粘性,防横跳)
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.49M,占61%)
操作建议: 空单首仓 20-30%:收割初步迹象出现,可开始布局
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
- 阶段裁决:见顶试空
场景推演
确认见顶·主跌开始
OI持续下降+多头爆仓加速 → 加仓做空
假见顶·再创新高
OI重新上行+费率再转负 → 割裂止损认错