VVV 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 18:09 CST · 捉妖器
10.25
-3.5% 24h
量 $17.4M
主跌·收网
观察·勿新开空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 13.08 | 13.3 | 11.92 | 12.14 | -7.2% | 11.6% | 3,268K | ★新高 |
| 07/05 | 12.14 | 12.36 | 11.22 | 11.97 | -1.4% | 10.1% | 2,791K | 长下影 |
| 07/06 | 11.97 | 12.27 | 11.32 | 11.51 | -3.9% | 8.4% | 2,206K | |
| 07/07 | 11.51 | 11.65 | 10.34 | 10.5 | -8.7% | 12.6% | 2,325K | |
| 07/08 | 10.5 | 11.82 | 10.32 | 11.43 | +8.9% | 14.6% | 2,346K | |
| 07/09 | 11.43 | 11.84 | 11.16 | 11.5 | +0.6% | 6.1% | 1,623K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/10 | 11.5 | 11.73 | 11.06 | 11.16 | -2.9% | 6.0% | 1,195K | |
| 07/11 | 11.16 | 11.2 | 10.31 | 10.48 | -6.1% | 8.6% | 1,407K | |
| 07/12 | 10.48 | 10.95 | 10.42 | 10.6 | +1.1% | 5.0% | 858K | 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 10.6 | 10.99 | 10.38 | 10.69 | +0.8% | 5.9% | 1,154K | 十字星 |
| 07/14 | 10.69 | 11.32 | 10.63 | 11.11 | +4.0% | 6.5% | 1,397K | |
| 07/15 | 11.11 | 11.27 | 10.43 | 10.78 | -3.0% | 8.0% | 1,736K | |
| 07/16 | 10.78 | 11.02 | 10.56 | 10.67 | -1.0% | 4.4% | 1,088K | |
| 07/17 | 10.67 | 11.11 | 10.01 | 10.25 | -3.9% | 11.0% | 948K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $22.1M | |
| 06/19 | $19.7M | -11.2% |
| 06/20 | $19.6M | -0.1% |
| 06/21 | $20.0M | +1.6% |
| 06/22 | $20.5M | +2.6% |
| 06/23 | $20.7M | +1.1% |
| 06/24 | $19.1M | -7.6% |
| 06/25 | $18.3M | -4.0% |
| 06/26 | $17.9M | -2.2% |
| 06/27 | $17.0M | -5.1% |
| 06/28 | $16.5M | -3.3% |
| 06/29 | $15.7M | -4.4% |
| 06/30 | $15.4M | -2.0% |
| 07/01 | $14.8M | -3.9% |
| 07/02 | $16.7M | +12.9% |
| 07/03 | $15.7M | -5.8% |
| 07/04 | $15.2M | -3.6% |
| 07/05 | $15.4M | +1.7% |
| 07/06 | $15.4M | -0.4% |
| 07/07 | $14.7M | -4.5% |
| 07/08 | $13.7M | -6.9% |
| 07/09 | $15.2M | +11.3% |
| 07/10 | $14.5M | -4.5% |
| 07/11 | $13.8M | -5.1% |
| 07/12 | $12.6M | -8.7% |
| 07/13 | $12.5M | -0.8% |
| 07/14 | $12.1M | -3.2% |
| 07/15 | $13.4M | +11.0% |
| 07/16 | $12.6M | -5.9% |
| 07/17 | $12.3M | -2.7% |
- 当前OI $12.3M,占近30日峰值的55%
- 近7天OI变化-11%
- 最近1日OI变化-3%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-8%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 42 | 62 | 99 | 125 | 10.53 | 10.7 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 空 | 44 | 60 | 107 | 113 | 10.65 | 10.75 |
| 07/12 23:22 | 空 | 61 | 43 | 122 | 96 | 10.74 | 10.81 |
| 07/13 07:22 | 多 | 68 | 36 | 130 | 88 | 10.6 | 10.75 |
| 07/13 16:36 | 多 | 57 | 63 | 124 | 133 | 10.71 | 10.68 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 空 | 56 | 64 | 123 | 137 | 10.68 | 10.71 |
| 07/14 08:37 | 空 | 62 | 56 | 140 | 120 | 10.78 | 10.89 |
| 07/14 17:06 | 空 | 55 | 57 | 121 | 120 | 10.84 | 11.04 |
| 07/15 01:22 | 空 | 57 | 58 | 123 | 119 | 10.97 | 11.14 |
| 07/15 09:52 | 空 | 37 | 60 | 95 | 139 | 10.84 | 10.97 |
| 07/15 18:36 | 空 | 51 | 47 | 110 | 130 | 10.84 | 10.96 |
| 07/16 02:52 | 空 | 47 | 48 | 97 | 134 | 10.77 | 10.84 |
| 07/16 10:22 | 空 | 50 | 44 | 112 | 115 | 10.86 | 10.88 |
| 07/17 01:56 | 空 | 31 | 63 | 91 | 130 | 10.5 | 10.76 |
| 07/17 10:02 | 多 | 42 | 48 | 110 | 113 | 10.32 | 10.98 |
- 数据跨度121小时(430个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 42→42(+0)
- 空头巨鲸 62→48(-14)
- 多头交易员 99→110(+11)
- 空头交易员 125→113(-12)
- 多头成本 10.53→10.32(-2.0%)
- 空头成本 10.7→10.98(+2.7%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -0.6%
- 空头浮盈亏 +6.7%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0045% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0022% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0022% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 16:00 | 0.0044% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-12 19:11 @ 10.835 · 至今-5.4%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·勿新开空
周期第2轮 · 22.72×
垂直爆发已疯 (146%)
OI$12.3M (峰值55%)
距本轮峰值52.4% · 44天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度47%
深盘锚定53%
类比≈MERL 见顶后47天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升23倍(垂直爆发146%),见顶后44天已崩52%,现价仍是最初起点的10.8倍
- 距本轮峰值52%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.004%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.17M,占51%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场